Niall Lyons has four golf betting tips for this week’s Hainan Classic including a five-point win selection at 14/1.
Hainan ClassicSee All Odds
Tipsters and punters who sat down on Monday to look at the Hainan Classic had a difficult task with enough confusion surrounding the layout to make you second guess yourself.
When I first looked I was excited as I had backed Poulter when he won at Mission Hills back in 2012. Sadly, this isn't the same golf course and instead we look to the 2011 World Cup for any potential clues, as to which there aren't many.
It's a very long golf course which more than likely plays into the bombers hands with very wide fairways and no rough to speak of. The task from there will be to hit the right parts of these very undulating greens.
I'll definitely favour length off the tee but approach play will probably play even more important with long irons playing a significant part of that equation. Let's get into my betting selections for this week.
Hainan Classic Tips
- 5pts WIN R.Neergaard-Petersen 14/1
- 1.25pts each-way M.Penge 40/1 (1/5 7) Coral, Ladbrokes
- 1pt each-way E.Smylie 110/1 (1/5 7) Coral, Ladbrokes
- 0.75pt each-way R.Williams 175/1 (1/5 6) Sky Bet
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History tells us levels matter an awful lot when it comes to the DPWT and it looks foolish to ignore Rasmus Neergaard Petersen at 14/1 this week at Mission Hills. It's easy to forget that this is his first full season on tour and he has been nothing but impressive throughout.
He ended last year in fine style with a top 10 in the Australian PGA and that was a sign of things to come as he went mighty close in Qatar being pipped by Haotong Li in February. A month off didn't do him any harm and he was extremely unlucky to bump into a worldie performance by Karl Vilips in Puerto Rico notching another runner up spot in the process.
22nd in the Valspar followed then another month off was shrugged off quite easily with a top 10 last week at the China Open. Nothing is phasing the Dane and I am extremely surprised he is not strong jolly here this week. The price will look correct to many, but I believe the future is so much brighter for this kid than the others around him in the market.
The future could tell the story that this was really a man amongst boys contest and I'm more than willing to put my money where my mouth is on that statement.
Chacarra could be very successful on this tour and Wenyi Ding could turn out to be a really good golfer, but evidence suggests that Neergaard Petersen is a future Ryder Cup star and it really shouldn't be long before he breaks his duck on this tour.
Wind could play it's part here and that's one of the few reasons why I'm happy to include Marco Penge here this week in China. The Englishman safely negotiated a very windy week at Alcanada, Mallorca when winning the Challenge Tour Grand Final at the back end of 2023.
Another win in Portugal looks to suggest Penge may be most capable when it comes to layouts such as this. It has been far from plain sailing since but he looks to have found some consistency now missing only one of his last seven cuts.
The best of those came in South Africa in the first week in March where he can count himself a little unlucky not to get a crack at a final day victory when the event was reduced to 54 holes due to the weather. His approach play was in decent nick last week finishing 26th and if he can manage to hole a few more putts he could be looking at a much better outcome this week.
Elvis Smylie burst onto the scene last November by overcoming Cameron Smith to win the Australia PGA and this talented left hander looks overpriced at triple figures here. 2025 hadn't gone to plan after that victory but last week’s 15th place finish at Enhance was a big positive and this should be a venue that sets up well for him.
His driver is probably the best club in his bag and he should be able to take full advantage with that club this week with many long par fours and par fives. If there has been a question mark over anything so far it probably is his approach play but signs were good last week ranking 10th in that department.
Should he bring that iron play this week then you have to think a wide open long golf course that is exposed to the wind is right up his street. I'm surprised to see the triple figure prices given the test this week and it could pay to side with someone at 100/1 who beat Neergaard-Petersen by six in that Aussie PGA as well as disposing of the likes of Jason Day and Marc Leishman.
This could really suit Matthew Jordan this week but the bookies look to have a proper hold on his price at 22/1 and he's best left for another day. Having won in China before Bern Wiesberger is interesting at triple figure prices and having ranked 6th off the tee last week he is certainly worth a second glance.
He has lost all of his length off the tee though it seems and that's probably going to be a fair disadvantage around here. At big prices I'm happy to give Robin Williams a go who has endured somewhat of a tough time on his first full season.
His main asset is off the tee and it's probably fair to say he hasn't been suited by a large amount of the venues to date this year. Recently he has been a little bit better finishing 14th in Joburg with a low round of the day 64 on Saturday.
Four 71s last week was a show of consistency where he ranked 39th in approach play. If his iron play improves a little bit more he could find himself in a much better position with this course suiting him a lot more off the tee. He could turn out to be a very dangerous golfer on these very long layouts so triple figure prices look fair this week.
