The bookies' favourite to succeed Pope Francis as leader of the Catholic Church is given a 30% chance at best price through oddschecker.
Pope Francis died on Easter Monday at the age of 88, prompting widespread mourning and immediate speculation over who will succeed him as the leader of the Catholic Church.
Thousands have been paying their respects after his body was carried via an open coffin from his Vatican residence to St Peter's Basilica before his funeral on Saturday 26th April.
The first Latin American leader of the Catholic Church passed away at the Vatican's Casa Santa Marta shortly after being released from Rome’s Gemelli Hospital, where he had been receiving treatment for pneumonia and a complex lung infection since mid-February.
His death brings an end to a 12-year papacy defined by humility, reform and a focus on social justice.
Francis had long struggled with respiratory issues, undergoing multiple surgeries and frequently cancelling engagements in recent months.
His declining health had already sparked quiet preparations within the Vatican, especially ahead of the Holy Year, set to conclude on 6th January 2026.
With the papal seat now vacant, the College of Cardinals will soon convene in the Sistine Chapel to elect his successor.
A two-thirds majority is required to choose the next pope, with early frontrunners including Luis Antonio Tagle, Matteo Zuppi, Peter Turkson, Pietro Parolin and Peter Erdo.
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Next Pope Odds
| Next Pope | Best Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin | 9/4 | 31% |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | 3/1 | 25% |
| Peter Turkson | 7/1 | 13% |
| Matteo Zuppi | 7/1 | 13% |
Who are the favourites to be the next Pope?
The Vatican’s Secretary of State since 2013, Parolin is is currently the frontrunner with an implied chance of 30.8% at best odds of 9/4 on Betfred.
At 70, he blends diplomatic experience with moderate theological views, making him a potential consensus candidate. His role in Vatican diplomacy and alignment with Francis’ reformist policies position him as a safe choice for continuity.
In the first 24 hours post Francis' passing, Parolin took more than 30% of the bets in the next Pope odds market through oddschecker. Filipino cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle was a distant second with a 16.5% share.
Tagle is the second favourite with odds of 3/1 (out from 13/5 at the start of Tuesday), reflecting strong support for a progressive successor to Pope Francis.
Tagle, 67, aligns closely with Francis’s vision of a more inclusive Church, having advocated for a softer approach toward marginalised groups. His extensive experience in evangelisation and his Asian heritage also make him a compelling choice as Catholicism grows rapidly in Asia.
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Once seen as a frontrunner in the 2013 conclave, Italian Cardinal Angelo Scola is no longer considered a viable candidate by many to become pope (now out to 20/1).
At 83, Scola has surpassed the age limit of 80 to vote in a papal conclave, making it highly unlikely that he would be elected by the cardinal-electors - who traditionally choose one of their own.
While canon law allows for a non-cardinal to be elected, the chances of such an outcome are rare.
Ghana’s Cardinal Turkson, a prominent figure in Church governance, now has odds of 7/1. A leading voice for social justice, he represents the growing influence of African Catholics.
At 76, his age may work against him, but his Vatican experience and advocacy for economic and environmental reforms could appeal to a wide range of cardinals.
